1. It is official; PAS won MU with a majority of 65 votes. Not much but that is enough to clinch the title of a winner. What is important here is that the voters are split right down in the middle. In a Malay dominated territory, the Malays are split into almost two equal halves.
2. The result of this by election is important. If it is extrapolated generally across the nation, it would mean that the entire Malays population is divided. The ethnic Chinese and the Indians basically will decide the final swing of the votes. If a general election is called tomorrow, it would means that BN will lose badly.
3. Looking at the campaigning that took place in MU, it appears that BN or UMNO did not do the campaigns but the campaign was actually conducted by the Federal Government. The media machinery of the government played a significant role. Literally, the entire Cabinet and the ministries went down to campaign. The government even promised the people of MU a new bridge. That shows the level of desperation in the BN camp. Racial sentiment and fear tactics was also strongly played by BN. They even had to resort seeking Lee Kuan Yew help in campaigning. Maybe this is the precursor to stronger relationship between Malaysia and Singapore.
4. For the PAS supporters they must be wondering what went wrong. It does not take a genius to figure it out. The promised of the bridge, the gifts in the forms of bicycle, school bags and various other goodies for the poor came from the welfare departments which only surfaced during elections had their impact. I guess the sweetest deal being financial incentives that was provided by some friendly parties to UMNO. Reports surfaces that people were being given between RM50 to RM300 for their support. Only God knows the truth.
5. To a certain extent, PAS is equally responsible for their decreasing support. Their internal bickering between the various factions and their splitting views of their Unity Government probably contributed to the decreasing margin. With 87% turnout, PAS inability to secure only 65 votes shows that there is something seriously wrong with their election machinery.
6. Now the result is known; BN had lost the seat and now is facing a big dilemma. Are they going to fulfill their promise of building a bridge? Now the people in Manik Urai is split, does it mean that the Federal Government will built half a bridge or it will built a bridge and put a signage that says “Khas untuk pengundi BN sahaja”? As for the name of this bridge, lets call it “Jambatan Pancing Undi”
7. So, Tan Sri Muhyuddin, when do you plan to start building the half bridge?
Dear Doc,
MU did not get the publisity as to the few by-elections of late. I guess BN wanted to be an underdog this round.
Well Pakatan and its supporters may still be in denial but to the eyes of any political analysis, BN morally won MU just by having a bigger majority. That’s the advantage of being the underdog in a match.
Hope our Pakatan leaders realize that they are headed for trouble if they don’t stop banging heads.
And to the PAS president and deputy… Just what were u guys thinking… unity talks with UMNO…?
What ever happen to the Integrity that PAS had which even the non muslims once admired…
Doc Holiday
Nice blog. Enjoyed going through it. Keep it up the good work. Cheers
and happy blogging 
Dengan situasi sekarang yang berlaku pada PR, jikalau diadakan pilihanraya di Perak, BN mungkin akan menang. Kali ini UMNO tak perlu cipta isu untuk menjatuhkan PR akan tetapi PR sendiri yg sendiri menyumbangkan isu untuk menjatuhkan diri mereka sendiri. Seperti yang saya pernah katakan sebelum ini, tiada orang waras yang mahukan negara mereka ditadbir oleh Parti gabungan yg mana diantara mereka pun boleh tidak sekepala. Apa yang perlu BN buat ialah bina jambatan di MU, buat promosi pembiaan itu di media masa dan disamping itu pihak media teruskan perbesarkan masalah2 dalaman PR. Selepas itu pandai2 la sendiri !
Saya rasa bukan saya seorang sahaja(didalam kelompok kumpulan orang diatas pagar) yang kecewa dengan keadaan di PR sekarang.
N another thing. Once that half (cock) bridge is up, they might as well erect a big banner displaying “satu lagi projek oleh Barisan Nasional” Auwww,,, it’ll look cute dude!!
Alo Doc. It seems TGNA’s battle cry of “Buwi kain pakai, buwi pitih amik, buwi gula, kuca…” no longer works or perhaps Kelantanese are gunning for the bridge this time round as PAS is still 2/3 in the DUN?
[...] Manek Urai – A lesson for all parties 1. It is official; PAS won MU with a majority of 65 votes. Not much but that is enough to clinch the title of a winner. [...] [...]
I like beautiful blogs!
Now that UMNO / BN under the much invigorated Najib is confident of usurping Pakatan Rakyat given that he has effectively dented Pakatan Rakyat’s and PAS’s majority, hopefully Najib and his BN component parties will use the newly gained popularity and momentum in calling for a Perak State Elections to confirm their recent claims.
The ball is now in Najib’s feat to effectively prove that BN under his rule has gained some measure of confidence. Wondering whether Najib is a pengecut or has the balls and gumption to effectively put his so called claim of rising UMNO and BN popularity to test. We the rakyat will wait and see.
hate to see how much $$$ was thrown around for this …
[...] my friend Dr. Rafick: Looking at the campaigning that took place in MU, it appears that BN or UMNO did not do the [...]
Org Kelantan memang camtu…susah nak bagi kemenangan besar dalam Pilihanraya Kecil.
Ini adalah kemenangan pertama PAS dalam Pilihanraya Kecil di Kelantan sejak 1997… Bukankah ini suatu petanda kepada kemerosotan sokongan kepada BN…
Any theory or postulate has merit or higher credibility when there is predictive value. Of all the theories of why PAS lost so much support I think Shalehudin said it best :
http://shalehudin.blogspot.com/2009/07/manek-urai-pas-kalah-jika-pengundi-luar.html
He predicted the result and even predicted that BN would bribe the voters. I don’t have all the numbers but I have a deep suspicion that the numbers don’t add up.
I do not believe that PAS lost any support nor do I believe umno had gained in their support.
Manik Urai profile do not match the the nation’s demography and the result there CANNOT be extented to the rest of malaysia. Manik Urai is mostly rural in nature and the educational level I believe is also not as high.
If I were najib I wouldn’t be popping any champaign too soon.
Sorry… my laptop is getting weird on me… As i was just saying. PAS members must make up their mind. Do they want to be the party that replaces UMNO or they are in politics just to be the second choice? If they say that they are here to replace UMNO then they have to do something about their leadership. The current PAS leadership is outdated in their thinking. They are still in the 1950’s mentality ( Melayu is islam and if a melayu party is in power,so does Islam). This mentality have to go and so does those leaders who has this ‘blur’ thinking. Frankly speaking I don’t want this type of politician governing Malaysia even though they are from PAS. We’ve had these type of leaders for 50 years and look what happen to Malaysia! Rakyat don’t want a party that still have a soft spot for UMNO!!! We want a party that will replace UMNO, period! No coorperation, no unity talk, no “dakwah” ( not untill you have power then you can pursue your dakwah much, much better!) and no moronic mental faculty! If PAS can’t do this then we will get someone else! The MU people has given PAS a timely reminder. Better learn the lesson fast, PAS!!!!
I think the main issue why the people of Manchester United strongly voted BN is the example showed by PAS leadership ( mostly the UG fraction) in flirting with UMNO and BN. The rationale of the people is if the PAS leadership still think it’s acceptable to cooperate with UMNO instead of replacing UMNO as the main malay/islam party then there’s no harm in voting UMNO/BN, is there? PAS UG fraction has given the message that PAS is not really trying wholeheartedly to replace UMNO but if there’s an opportunity PAS will reluctantly take it. This “melayu pandir” attitude of the PAS leadership is not convincing anyone of their ability to govern Malaysia. Truthfully, there’s not a single malay/muslim who thinks Hj Hadi is PM material and that goes for the top PAS leadership ( can’t imagine any top PAS leaders becoming minister… no charisma, no forward thinking attitude but most importantly, they all lack the necessary intelligence… just like UMNO minister). So apart from TG Nik Aziz, has any of the PAS leadership showed their mettle in statesmanship and governance? So does it make sense to replace moron with moron? I don’t think so. PAS need to drastically change their top leadership…. It’s not enough just changing their policy and style of politic, without a strong, firm and pragmatic leadership to force the implementation all those changes are merely slogan and rhetoric. UMNO is the perfect example. So PAS member must really think hard, is PAS really
looks like some many hantu votes in this place …
Have you, Doc, considered the effect of UMNO’s underhanded trick of putting up posters showing Tok Guru shaking hands with LKY on the eve of July14? Remember 1990, when Tengku Razaleigh lost the election by being photographed wearing a tengkolok with a cross on it.
Dr, comes the next GE the government will throw out more goodies for the non malays to get their support. BN is more desperate now to win non malays support.
Doc
Kelantaneses never give in to threats especially from UMNO. Development for vote trap has been played by UMNO since 70s and 80s to no avail. They live their lives under this threat since the late Dato Asri’s time, not since 1990. They are immune.
The other way to look at MU result is, they are very smart ppl,they wanted PAS all along yet they bind UMNO to their election promises.
Now UMNO has to deliver atleast the bridge because voters in 2 areas where a new bridge is to be constructed had voted UMNO. If UMNO renegades on this promise, sayonara lah!
the next issue that UMNO need to address real quick is about Petronas Royalty. If UMNo is smart enuff, if it is kelantan’s ppl rights, give it to them.
This is because kelantan politic is a bit unique. Both PAS and UMNO were booted out when they crossed the line of fairness, sincerity and even playing field. One day UMNO will govern kelantan, and they need monies to carry out developments. PAS, on day will be kick out. The present turmoil in PAS is an early indication that its time is drawing near. Only TGNA is holding PAS together rite now.
Petronas royalty can do a lot for the malays in kelantan. State government can implement policies in favour of the malays easily as they form 98% of the ppl in the state. Furthermore a more balanced policies towards the non-malays pun senang untuk dilaksanakan kerana jumlah mereka tidak ramai.
With this monies, kita boleh bangunkan kekuatan orang melayu dalam semua bidang tanpa menganaktirikan kaum bukan melayu dikelantan.
Unless UMNO masih berfikiran sempit dan kuno, mereka akan deny hak rakyat kelantan dalam isu wang royalty ini.
bat8
Doc,
this is scary, seems that the malays termakan pancing MSM on some issues …
DR, WE WILL GET A HALF STRAIGHT AND HALF CROOKED BRIDGE IN MALAYSIA SPONSORED BY THE TPM
FIRST OF ITS KIND – SINCE JOHOR NO GO!
MAYBE LKY WILL HELP OUT TOK GURU…!
OH OH JAMBATAN TANPARULI !!!
I like your analysis !!!