This morning, I got up and I look at my magic mirror and I ask the mirror… “Mirror! Mirror on the wall.. who is the biggest liar among them all..”
1. In less than 48 hours the Permatang Pauh (PP), parliamentary by election will take place. In what would be considered the most interesting election of recent times, it is fueled with dramas, suspense, thrillers, police reports, strategies, counter strategies,swearing by the Quran, multiples SD’s released at a very timely manner and many more.
2. Some say this election will have a major impact on the country. Other’s say it is only a by-election. What ever it is, the pre-election drama that has been taking place since March 2008 has been very interesting. As for me, I believe the election is about Anwar future in Malaysian politics. It is also a credibility test of the BN government. I have been talking to several people in the street and some friends in PP trying to gauge the on-going campaigns and the possible outlook on the election results.
3. Everywhere that I go, the on going topic of discussion is about the PP election. Who will win and what kind of margin appears the core of discussion. Even the punters are having a field day. Many people are going to be rich or to be poor depending on the result. What factors will decide the winner? On paper, it is a fight between Ariff Shah and Anwar but in reality it is a fight between BN and Anwar. Who is the BN candidate, unfortunately not many people outside PP knows him. Since Anwar is well known, the fight is now known as the fight between Anwar and BN.
4. Based on the March 2008 General Election many people is making their analysis. I am going to present mine as well. In the three DUN in PP, it appears that one DUN belongs to UMNO, one to PKR and the other is to PAS. In all areas, the majority are minimal. The population consist of 60% Malays and 40% non-Malays. The result of discussion with friends on both side of fence reveals that majority of the Indians are voting Anwar because they are still upset about the Hindraf 5 being house in a hotel in Taiping. Majority of the Chinese are willing to explore new directions because of the current economic slowdown. They want to see fresh ideas in economic leadership.
5. The Malays appears too divided and confused. While many sympathized with Anwar and Azizah, they are confused with the Al Quran swearing by MSB and Anwar refusal to do so. The PAS members and their followers are much divided over this issue. Officially, they have to follow the instruction from their HQ. However, their heart is divided over the Quran swearing issue. Furthermore, the BN has been propagating some serious racial messages and asking people to think along the racial lines.
6. They have also been propagating messages related to violence actions of PKR men. Whether PKR men are violent or some people say they are BN people dressing in PKR costumes, we will never know the truth. We just need to make an educated guess. So where does the Malays stand in this matter. We need to divide this to those very educated and poorly educated Malays from political point of view. The kampung politics is not the same as what the city folk is thinking. Many looks at smaller and personal issues instead of national agenda.Taking into consideration of the many factors that comes into play, I would say the Al Quran swearing issue would play a big part in the final hour among the Malay Muslim masses.
7. These are the facts. In reality, politics is never about the people . It is about reaching the pinnacle of power. This can be achieved by making promises that cannot be kept. It is about lying in-between the truth. It is more about twisting the facts. It is about the art of lying. The guy that can convince the people and is able to deliever the most reassuring lie will win the battle.
8. In the case of PP, the more convincing liar will win. The liar would be able to divide the voters and rule. They would be able to isolate the fence sitters and convince this group. Going by the resources available to both side, I would say that chances are either one will win by 500 to 1000 votes. I might be wrong and I might not like it but it appears that BN will have the advantage.
9. How did I come to this conclusion? Well because BN would be able to spread greater lies and the gullible Malays will believe them. Anwar will get most of the Indian and Chinese votes. The demography is one of a “kampong” and cannot be compared to a city people. I feel Anwar would have a better chance if he had contested in Bandar Tun Razak. The people is now flooded with swearing with the Quran and in the mosque, MSB,Najib and the latest being Tajol Rosli.. hmmm.. Everyone is waiting for Anwar to do it as well. The fact that Anwar chose not to swear by the Quran will cost him dearly. Who knows, Anwar might just change his mind and do it at the very last moment. Let us wait and enjoy the show..
It’s bad enough to allow the reciting of the quran turned into a competition and ever so detesting to permit those with political motives utilised the holy book to decieve. The habit of propagating lies in msian politics has become a norm. No matter how it’s defined ,convincing or otherwise , One obvious fact is that the BN nutured politicians has evolved into being consumate liars
A diligent and prudent man must not accept such a ‘pack of lies’ which in itself is humilating the human intellect.
Personally, I don’t think this is about who is the better liar. Permatang Pauh has always been DSAI / Wan Azizah stronghold ever since DSAI first contested in PP. PP has been DSAI/Kak Wan’s homeground advantage for decades.
Even when DSAI was arrested under ISA under Sodomy 1, we saw PKR winning the PP seat, and this is no small feat.
Even when AAB won in 2004 with the highest ever mandate – 91% of total nationwide votes – they did not win PP, and this speaks volumes.
In short, PP voters have been extremely loyal and consistently loyal to DSAI/Kak Wan in every election during all these years, and following Mar 8 tsunami, their loyalty has increased even more as witnessed by DSAI’s ceramah.
If the results reflect the Nomination Day, my guess is we will see a tsunami of an even greater proportion that Mar 8, in light of the huge disatisfaction with the BN government over the fuel hike, corruptions, mismanagements, etc. that simply did not flow through to PP.
And every PP person that I spoke to personally sees the recent “gifts” by BN as insulting. They know that if DSAI did not contest the by election, there would be no license, no monies, no “gifts”. They know it’s a one-time thing.
I would not underestimate the intelligence of PP voters nor their dignity. They know it’s the only chance to send their home-boy to Putrajaya.
Seng.
Doc ,
“Cakap tak seperti bikin” and “Bikin tak seperti cakap” That is the defination of politics. It does not matter which side is the better liar.
I was in PP on saturday , went there to witness the actual mood of the voters in PP because you just cannot now believe the propaganda of either the MM nor the alternative news. You have to be on the ground to satisfy yourselve on the truth of the actual situation.
The voters have made up their mind. For hardcore party members they have decided.For the Chinese , Indians and educated Malays it is about opportunity for a change. But the great decider for fence sitters is all about personality and DSAI wins over the combine force of AAB, NR,KJ AS ,…. without any reasonable doubt.
I will be surprised if DSAI was to lose the PP by-election but this is not an impossibility!
Please do not underestimate the kampong folks.They will vote the person that best represent them.I don’t think they can be influenced by last minute promises and goodies.Joceline Tan’s article in The Star (24 Aug) is a good indicator of what is to come on 26 Aug.
Dr. Rafick,
I might not agree so much with you this time. While BN are definitely better liars, it seems Anwar too is not that bad at at telling lies. And he has been telling lies to the PP people for a while now, and the PP people loves his lies. They are addicted to it. But we can only wait until the results of the elections are out. Would be interesting to find out who is the bigger fat liar……:)