1. From political perspective, the country is at the lowest ebb since independence. It is a real mess at the pinnacle of power. While this entire thing is happening, economic indicators for the country are slipping. The entire top politician is fighting for their survival and the reality is managing the country is becoming second task. The political gossip is now affecting the top government servant and government machinery. As a result, less time is spending on working but more on talking.
2. The latest allegation against Anwar is bound to create problem. While the truth is out there and even the evidence is against Anwar, the people will not believe it. His supporters is not about to take it sitting down. There are bound to be riots. I have been doing some reading, talking, and analysis of the Anwar issue and I am in the opinion that the allegation made by Mohd Saiful Bahari (MSB) is quite credible. From my own analysis, there is strong case against Anwar.
Desperate times calls for desperate measures
3. Anyone in his position will deny the allegation. Najib and his wife also deny the allegation involving Althantuya. Like Pak Lah said “ Tentu lah yang bersalah akan menafikan..” Anwar is now preparing his ammunitions. He has started by revealing the association between MSB and Najib’s office. Today, he is releasing another bullet against Najib with the SD by a private investigator name P. Bala who apparently knows quite a lot.
4. Anwar also has check mate the IGP (Musa Hassan) and the AG (Ghani Patail) with his police report. If what P. Bala is saying is true then the prosecutor may have to rework its case. The allegation about changing the prosecuting teams and the courts will now become a liability for the government and especially for Najib.
5. In my earlier writing http://rights2write.wordpress.com/2008/06/29/anwar-sodomising-again/, I have mentioned that the allegation involving Anwar is related to between power brokers whose state mascot is an elephant. Anwar and PKR have been able to provide proof to this effect. Anwar is desperate. Najib is equally desperate. The latest revelation is making life difficult for him and Rosmah. There is a saying, if I fall, you fall and I see it happening here between Najib and Anwar. Anwar is not about to go down alone. He will drag Najib as well. Has anyone notice that Anwar has never attacked Pak Lah! He is not going to be caught without putting a fight.
6. I was shocked and literally collapsed on my chair when I heard the 800 pm news where Najib admitted that MSB came to see him few days ago prior to making the police report. This is contrary to his earlier statement that he has never met the boy and MSB came to his office seeing his officers in trying to get a scholarship. Najib contradictory statement is now strengthening the conspiracy story involving him. As if the Althantuya murder has not done enough damage, now he make things worst for himself.
7. The Army and Police is preparing for the worst. They are doing the necessary excrcise. I am glad that they are doing the necessary preparation. Malaysia cannot afford any chaos now. From where I stand, I see Selangor will be the centre of the chaos and there is fire coming in from the North and from the East. As long as martial law is not declared any legal and fair action by the police and army is welcomed. Martial law is not going to be good for Malaysia. It has a long term impact on the economy.
8. From my own analysis, there is a strong case against Najib, Rosmah and Anwar in their respective problems. Pak Lah who has been labeled as quiet, flip flop, sleeping is now being seen as the only one who can steer the country in times of trouble. Pak Lah who is seen as a Mr Nice Guy, will now have to be firm. He has to show fairness to the whole country and that is why action must be taken against Najib and Anwar.
9. He has to take action against both Anwar and Najib. While Anwar will be managed by the Police, Pak Lah has to suspend Najib until his name is cleared. Najib image is full of baggage and this need to be cleared .. Najib image is also affecting the country. Until this is done, Najib should stay out of the government. Post in UMNO is a different matter. Pak Lah need to be firm here. If Anwar, Rosmah or Najib is guilty then they should be charge. The natural justice must be allowed to take its course. If no one believes Tun M the same cannot be said about the son of Mr Ahmad Badawi. He is known for his fairness and kindness.
10. The ACA will manage the IGP and the AG. On the far left, I see Muhyuddin is grinning from ear to ear. Pak Lah is now needed more than ever and there might just be a vacancy for the number two post. My advice to Pak Lah is, please stop defending your deputy. It might also drags you in. Some say Anwar will be pick up any moment now and Susan loone says he will be pickup in 48 hours. However, with the latest manuevres, Anwar freedom will last slightly longer. As for the goat farming industry (Pak Lah’s favourite), it will continue to thrive.
Dear Crankshaft
I believe many people has misconstrued about the Armed Forces (AF) involvement in the peace keeping measures during a crisis.
The AF involvement is governed by the law. They do not get involve on their own. Honestly, the AF top brass too do not like to be involve in such a problem. Even Najib as DPM or Min Of Defence can tells them to act.
When there is a need to restore public order, the police will play the first role. They will use all asset and personal that they have. Initially FRU and then PGA. If the situation is not controlled, the Army will be ordered to get involve.
When that time comes, the IGP will have to make a stand. It has to make decision that it cannot control the situation. He will advice the PM (as the chairman of National Security Council) that the police is not able to control the situation and the Council will then instruct the AF to get involved.Once the AF get involved, all defense, police and other government machinery will come under the command of the Chief of AF. He will use all his power to restore peace and order.
Recently the Police and Army has been conducting a joint exercise. Training makes perfect. What they are doing is fair and legitimate. The problem is many people prefer to interpret them negatively. Any exercise to ensure smooth transition of power between the police and the army is important. The police and the army has to protect the interest of millions of innocent bystanders.
Between protecting Anwar or Najib’s interest, I will do anything that I think is right that will protect me and my family interest. Anwar and Najib is insignificant to me when public order is at stake. That is why I welcome the Army and Police training. They have to protect the millions of dollars of public asset. As a citizen, we need to look into the bigger picture.
The Army and Police is preparing for the worst. They are doing the necessary excrcise. I am glad that they are doing the necessary preparation. Malaysia cannot afford any chaos now.
I don’t think I can agree with you on that. The police and army have diferent functions in different scopes. Bringing the army in to resolve a domestic matter will add to chaos rather than to prevent it.
Personally, I think the police, without the army reinforcement, does enough damage by erectng unnecessary roadblocks.
Dear Dr Rafick
What u r blogging I assure U certainly opens up the mind..which is what blogging/writing is all about… in quest for the TRUTH
Keep up the good work…
May Allah bless n keep u n your family in good health
regards
haji muhammad bin abdullah @ tan wah guan
PS
I have also written this same comment in your earlier bog on Najib n Norhayati..Just to make sure u get to read this simple comment from another blogger …WG (me) .. but I assure he’s quite a terrible writer..procastinating as always)
I disagree with you Drrafick, your analysis is layman opinion. Everybody are thinking like this. Don’t spread the romours. This is political games. We wait and see, who will checked mate!. Army is under DYMM Agong not under the stupid leader of BN. We have a sea sight DYMM Agong.
Sun Tzu theories ….tested to its hilt
It usually works
my two cents worth
Dato Arshad
The commander must be in control of the action of their man. I believe Army will come in as a last resort. The generals too has to protect their rice bowl
Dear Dr. Rafick,
The political landscape has changed drastically since Pak Lah retook power following his party’s dismal win in the last elections. He has still not awaken from the loss, but the last few days events in the country, has made him to wonder whether a short holiday to Australia will be good for him.
With regards to the use of the Army in case there is disorder in the country,I am totally against it. You and I know what the Army is capable of doing?
Cikgu Syon
Bawa bertenang. Jika ada kekalutan, polis akan cuba menyelesaikan. Pihak tentera akan hanya masuk campur jika pihak polis gagal dan di atas arahan kerajaan.
Kalau Tentera ambil alih, Menteri Pertahanan pun tak ada kuasa dah. Yang ada di tangan PAT.
Mengikut pengalaman saya yang lepas lepas, pihak tentera
tidak berminat di dalam menguruskan negara. Menguruskan ATM pun dah cukup pening dan inikan pula seluroh negara.
Rakyat hendaklah fikir panjang dan sebaik baiknya duduk di rumah dan habiskan masa bersama keluarga. Jangan keluar dan jangan hebahkan maklumat palsu yangboleh memudaratkan keadaan lagi
In the first place the only sexual behavior that can be considered a crime is RAPE – i.e., where coercion, intimidation or brute force is involved. So it’s moot as to whether or not Saiful’s allegations against Anwar are true or untrue – since it hardly seems credible that the young man was a victim of rape. Only in a benighted country where hypocrisy and false piety rule can a person’s sexual preferences be used as a political weapon against them (and here we are reminded of the shameful situation where millions were spent trying to prove that Bill Clinton was given a blowjob by Monica Lewinsky and should therefore be impeached; while all attempts to impeach Bush & Cheney for slaughtering hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of Afghani and Iraqi civilians have been blocked by powerful vested interests). The timing of Saiful’s police report and his reported links with Najib, Rosmah and Musa Hassan further compromise the purity of his intentions and motives. If there was a sexual relationship between him and Anwar, it would have been consensual and for him to now publicize the affair reveals him to be of extremely low character; and if it was enirely untrue, his action exposes him to a serious defamation suit and public opprobrium.
Now the Altantuya affair is a whole different kettle of fish. What is in question here is the moral fitness of Umno/BN’stop leadership to form the government. We cannot have such hardcore criminals holding high office. It’s as simple as that. And if they resist being brought down by resorting to police or military action against the Rakyat, they would have descended to the moral level of a banana republic like Burma under SLORC or Zimbabwe under Mugabe. The only way a gang of crooks can maintain their grip on an entire country is to embark on a bloodbath of massive proportions such as Pol Pot initiated in Cambodia. Can it happen here?
I think not. Our samseng in Umno/BN may be as deceitful, greedy and corrupt as the world’s worst thugs – but I doubt they have the stomach for full-scale military rule. And even if they did there would be crippling outflow of money and professional talent from Malaysia that would knock our country back to the 19th century.
.
Saya jadi bimbang bila tgk berita kerjasama polis dan tentera. kemungkinan darurat akan diisytiharkan makin ketara. Jika tentera ambil alih siapa yg jd ketua? Bapa C4 la… Lagi kalut…. Keadaan takkan aman lagi menakutkan adalah.
Saya harap Najib, Musa Hassan, Gani Patail dan semua polis yang terlibat (dirty one la) letak jawatan. NOW!!!!!! Jd siasatan akan lebih telus dan satu suruhanjaya diraja dibentuk. Siasatan tidak tidak boleh dijalankan oleh mana-mana jabatan bawah kerajaan Malaysia. Badan Bebas…
Sekali dalam hidup anda jadilah seorang pemimpin yang bertanggungjawab dan amanah. Jika mereka ini benar2 Islam, mereka akan mempunyai rasa takut pada MATI. Dah Mati takkan ada IGP atau AG yang boleh tolong…… Bukan semua orang Melayu itu Islam…dan bukan semua pemimpin itu bertanggungjawab dan amanah. Dan tidak dapat dilihat pemimpin Malaysia seperti Khulafa ar-rasyidin.
Action by the military is never welcome.
The military is trained to fight wars. They normally think in terms of exerting maximum violence. That would be a disastrous response to street protests.
You have to differentiate between organised protest and violent threat to life and property.
I’m a supporter of the right to peaceful assembly.
What happens if the army starts shooting automatic rifles into a peaceful crowd, just because it refuses to obey the order to disperse ?
We could end up with something like the Tian An Men massacre, for which China PRC still cannot live down, 20 years later.
I personnaly think that, this won’t happen, if DSAI tak “gelojoh” nak jadi PM. If DSAI truely berjiwa rakyat, he will suggest org lain jadi PM dari kalangan PKR. IS he the only one “THE ONE” from PKR can be the PM what about others from other alternative party?
I pray DSAI will not be arrested for the SODOMEE issues but I will Pray harder.. he will not become the next PM of malaysia. Of course.. non of the next lineup of UmmmmmmNOSSS.. capable to hold the post especially.. tauke C4 punya hubby!.
my2 cent ….
So Najib is a closet buttf….. Sorry I am too embarassed to say the word.
[...] And in response to this nuclear-bomb revelation, Susan conjectures that Anwar Ibrahim to be arrested in 48 hours!. She bases this on an analysis on the national political situation by Dr. Rafick – Rights 2 Write. [...]
Dear Pro KJ
Regrets, I disagree with you
Mr Smith
I am sorry that I disappoint you.
You need to understand the word prima facie in the context of this which means : “at first view or on the first appearance”
In this context, I stand by what I say based on my own RESEARCH. It is definitely not clairvoyance or intuition.
I am sure there are no shortage of people who is willing to be an alibi to Anwar, Najib and Rosmah whenever they required any.
Let us all be patient and wait for the outcome of the police investigation.
I am worried and the Army and Police have this joint exercise. I am worried they would used to suppress the people.
Judging from the way some past and ongoing cases were handled, they definately act ‘professionally’. Forget, ignorance, overlook, inexperience were the common excuses used. Look at how the BN’s and Oppositions’ protest were treated by the armed forces.
ChoonLee
For your pondering: Seven Conspiracy Theories of the Anwar Sodomy Allegations
I am convinced that Abdulllah is the best and together with his trusty aid the mighty KJ, Malaysia will be great again!
I have always admired you but not on this one.
Have you seen the police report made by Saiful? No
Have you seen the medical report on Saiful’s arse? No
Have you been told of Anwar’s alibi? No
The how come you say there is a prima facie case against him?
Intuition or clairvoyance? Or plain gullibility.
[...] Loone warns that Anwar Ibrahim will be arrested within 48 hours, citing a post by a Dr Rafick. I am doubtful. Too many false alarm nowadays. Malaysians should just stay calm. We are living in [...]
A regular Lt Columbo…. typo error , sorry. Staff duties? muekekeke
I read somewhere Pak lah ids regular L Coumbo and he is killing two birds with one stone.
Great , Pak Lah made a strategic move. Next cause of action to TDM. Stay tune guys. Appreciate the genius KJ.
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